Lewis Hamilton predicts a “painful” 2025, but next year could turn back the clock

Then, Hamilton spoke of his early days with the Scuderia as "a new lease of life,” understandable after his years being nurtured by, and working for Mercedes, with all of his pole positions, Grand Prix wins and Drivers' Titles powered by the German manufacturing giant.

It was always a stretch to expect Hamilton to immediately redress the difficulties he faced over his last three seasons with Mercedes as the glory years faded, for both driver and constructor, beneath the shroud of the current aerodynamic regulations.

After the last of its Constructors' Titles in 2021, Mercedes' failure to build not just race-winning, but even consistent podium-challenging machinery, allied to the fact the ground-effect era has never suited Hamilton's style of driving, naturally raised doubts as to whether we had seen the last of his greatness.

There were still flashes of the old genius. Anybody at Silverstone on the 7^th July last year bore witness to that with Hamilton's stirring drive to another British Grand Prix victory. If the venerable venue had a roof, no doubt it would have been lifted such was the cacophony of noise and outpouring of emotion that greeted his triumph that day.

To a slightly lesser extent, but still superb nonetheless, there was Las Vegas. With the clock counting down on his Mercedes career, Hamilton delivered a cool, calm, calculated drive to second place behind team-mate George Russell from tenth on the grid after a mistake in qualifying had undermined his victory chances.

Heavily sandwiched between those performances, however, were pangs of doubt as to whether he still had what it takes. Whether his qualifying speed in particular, that had delivered a record-breaking 104 pole positions, was still there within him or just a memory from his glorious past.

Over 30 qualifying sessions last year, including six sprints, Hamilton was trounced 24-6 by Russell. No previous team-mate had come remotely close to such a surprising record against the Briton in his previous 17 seasons. 

Just a week after his performance in Las Vegas, Hamilton reached his nadir of personal inquisition when, after qualifying seventh for the sprint in Qatar, he declared himself to be "definitely not fast anymore," that he was quite simply "slow."

At the time, questions were naturally raised over Hamilton's impending move to Ferrari, especially going head-to-head against a driver in Charles Leclerc, rated by many to be the quickest in the modern era over one lap.

The pomp and circumstance of Hamilton's historic switch when he made his first public appearance at Maranello in mid-January, and the obvious adulation of the Tifosi, only served to heighten the expectancy on his shoulders.

Despite the initial deflation of the season-opening performance in Australia, with Ferrari seemingly comfortably off the pace, Hamilton's follow-up victory in the Shanghai sprint from pole left not only him "gobsmacked," as he remarked, but many neutral observers, too.

There was the natural suggestion at the time that the Hamilton of old had returned, securing not only his own first sprint win, but equally as remarkably, the maiden triumph for Ferrari in the short-race format.

But just as the saying goes that one swallow does not make a summer, so one sprint success does not transform Hamilton's woes with the current cars and turn him into an overnight sensation with the Scuderia.

Hamilton's adaptation process has been far from easy, and even on reflection, it is has proven difficult for Hamilton and Ferrari to quantify just why he performed so well over the one-third distance event at the Shanghai International Circuit.

The 40-year-old has outlined the issues in jumping from a car and an organisation that was akin to a second skin, to one so "alien" to him, as he recently put it after finishing fifth in the Bahrain Grand Prix.

"It [the car] just feels so alien," said Hamilton. "Sometimes I think we all get stuck in our ways, and very stuck, like, 'No, I need to keep driving the way I've been driving. Just make the car come to me'.

"But that's not working. So I am adjusting myself now to the car and also, the way with the tools that they use, it just drives so much different. With all the ECU controls that we use, I have to use them a lot differently to what I had last [at Mercedes]."

Engine braking with Ferrari – not needed at Mercedes, is a key fundamental difference. The balance of the car has also been off, which Ferrari is aware of, since his sprint win in China.

More than anything, though, the insecurities Hamilton displayed last season at Mercedes, notably after qualifying, have returned now he is at Ferrari.

In Bahrain, Hamilton mumbled his way through his written media pen duties, his words barely audible, after qualifying ninth. What was distinctly heard was the remark that he was "not doing a good enough job.”

Eight days later, after finishing seventh in Saudi Arabia, Hamilton's bleak mood was again in evidence, insisting there was "zero" to take from the race, other than Leclerc scoring the team's first podium of the season.

As for the rest of the campaign, and how he will fare with the car, the prediction was dark. "At the moment, there is no fix," he said. "This is how it is going to be for the rest of the year, it is going to be painful. I literally tried everything and the car just didn't want to work with me."

Across the first five races, excluding the sprint, Hamilton has been out-qualified by Leclerc 4-1. The average deficit is 0.315seconds, with their average grid slots 7.4 for Hamilton and 4.8 for Leclerc.

Yes, it is still early days, but the worry is there for Hamilton and his followers, particularly given his level of despondency following qualifying in Bahrain and the race in Saudi Arabia.

The positive is that these are the last races of the current regulatory era. The power units and aerodynamics change next year, and perhaps Hamilton will again be handed a car he finds a pleasure to drive, that he can extract the maximum from over one lap because that has been far from the case these past three and a bit years.

My personal view has always been that Hamilton's move to Ferrari should be viewed as two separate seasons. This first, to build and nurture the relationships required between a driver and those immediately responsible for delivering the best performance from him and the car. Trust, a bond, takes time. It is not a light switch to immediately be flicked with the path ahead illuminated.

With a year's worth of racing under their belts as a team and driver combination, learning and appreciating what is required of each other, Hamilton then has a solid, reliable platform on which to build for 2026 and the arrival of a car that could turn the clock back to his heyday. 

Then, and only then, should he be judged as to whether he still has what it takes, or whether his best days are most definitely behind him. 

Images courtesy of Getty Images.